WingRight

On the night before the election, I’m predicting that McCain will win by 5-10 electoral votes.

How can this be with Obama ahead in all major polls? The answer is the Spiral of Silence.

The Spiral of Silence was first propounded by German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann and, in short version, means that “a person is less likely to voice an opinion on a topic if one feels that one is in the minority for fear of reprisal or isolation from the majority.”

In more detail via Wikipedia:

The spiral of silence begins with fear of reprisal or isolation, and escalates from there. Individuals use what is described as “an innate ability” or quasi-statistical sense to gauge public opinion. Mass media plays a large part in determining what the dominant opinion is, since our direct observation is limited to a small percentage of the population. Mass media has such an enormous impact on how public opinion is portrayed, and can dramatically impact an individual’s perception about where public opinion lies, whether or not that portrayal is factual. Noelle-Neumann describes the spiral of silence as dynamic process, in which predictions about public opinion become fact as mass media’s coverage of the majority opinion becomes the status quo, and the minority becomes less likely to speak out. (Citations Omitted)

This is the downside of the MSM’s descent into acting as the propaganda wing of the Obama campaign. Those voters who dislike Obama or prefer McCaiin are either not talking to pollsters (some polls have a refusal rate of 80% or more recently) or they’re saying they support Obama while not doing so.

Obama’s injunction to his followers to “argue with your neighbors” and “get in their face” if they’re not voiting for Obama further accentuates the Spiral of Silence.

In Britain, the 1992 victory of John Major and the Conservative party in the face of unanimous polling that predicted a Labor win commenced a standard practice of UK pollsters to factor in the Spiral of Silence. US pollsters don’t do so. I predict that they will in 2012.

See more here and here.

UPDATE: See the Times of London

Tags: Elections, Liberal Media, Political Correctness by Publius
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I have extremely mixed feelings about President George W. Bush. I think he did some good things early in his presidency, but also made some terrible decisions.

President Bush can perform one of his most important acts for the welfare of the United States before his term expires: Appoint a Special Counsel to investigate two aspects of this election.

1. Potential violations of the campaign finance laws
2. Potential violations of voter registration and related laws

The Special Counsel should be tasked with investigating both the McCain and Obama campaigns and voter registration activities of individuals and organizations associated with both the Republican and Democrat parties.

My recommendation for this Special Counsel: Patrick Fitzgerald.

I believe that Fitzgerald was overly-aggressive in his prosecution of Scooter Libby, but, unlike Ken Starr, it will be difficult for the liberal press to tar him with pro-Republican biases. While I disagree with some of Fitzgerald’s prior actions, I think he is very resistant to being deterred or intimidated. Fitzgerald has deep experience with corrupt money in politics, a fixture in Chicago where he is the current U.S. Attorney. Fitzgerald has prosecuted both Tony Rezko and Illinois Republican Governor Rod Blagojevich.

Bush should make the appointment immediately following the election regardless of who wins. Bush will take heat for this, regardless of who the successful candidate is, but it will go a long way toward protecting the election process in the United States. If one party or the other believes the election was stolen, the uproar over hanging chads in Florida will look mild by comparison.

The Independent Counsel statute under which Ken Starr was appointed has expired. The Special Counsel is part of the Justice Department and the Special Counsel can be fired by the Attorney General. By appointing a Special Counsel before the next administration takes office, President Bush will cause the next President and his nominee for Attorney General to be asked whether they will allow the Special Counsel to continue with the investigation. I believe that the American people will react negatively if this investigation is prematurely terminated.

Tags: Elections by Publius
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