WingRight

1. If you’re living in the Republic of Georgia or Ukraine, you better brush up on your Russian. Within 6 months of Obama taking office, Putin will send troops in to Georgia and Ukraine. He will make certain to grab the Baku-Supsa and the South Caucasus pipelines so he can put Europe into a hammerlock, particularly with natural gas. Obama will protest and so will the EU, but nobody will be ready to push Russian troops out. Estimated probability – 80%. Once he’s in Ukraine, Vladimir will start throwing his weight around with Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc. Estimated probability – 70%.
2. Given the timing of the Israeli election, Israel is unlikely to be in a position to take any military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities until after Obama is inaugurated. Obama will absolutely refuse to allow Israel to attack Iran, prohibit overflights of Iraq and threaten to warn Iran if U.S. surveillance facilities observe any Israeli air force planes heading in the direction of Tehran. Estimated probability – 90%. Within the first two years of the Obama administration, Iran will explode a nuclear device and will announce that it has nuclear warheads mounted on missiles capable of hitting Israel and any other country in the Middle East or Central Europe. Estimated probability – 90%. If Israelis don’t start a major program to expedite the emigration of its citizens, Iran will fire one or more nuclear missiles at Tel Aviv. Estimated probability – 60%. If the Israelis strike first, Iran will launch nuclear missiles at Tel Aviv. Estimated probability – 90%
3. Hugo Chavez will decide that he needs some additional land to govern and will start taking it from Colombia. Obama will remember how much Bill Ayers likes Hugo and protest, but do nothing more. A significant border war will break out which will give Chavez a chance to use his new Russian military equipment. Estimated probability – 75%
4. The United States will join with the European Union in a treaty that imposes significant limits on carbon emissions. Most of the countries in the EU will cheat and exceed the limits. The United States will not. This action will reduce US corporate profits by at least 500 billion dollars in the first five years and increase US unemployment to over 10%. Residential electricity and heating bills will triple in that same period and Obama will create major energy subsidies for the middle class. China will not join the treaty and its annual GDP will grow to exceed the GDP of the US during this period.

Tags: Climate Change, Economy, Energy, Liberal "Solutions", Obama, Russia by Publius
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There’s a lot of good commentary about the conversation between Joe the Plumber and the Obama. My favorite so far is from Claudia Rosett.

But I haven’t heard anyone talk about Joe the investor. As a predicate for his question, Joe said he was thinking about buying a business that would generate $250,000-$280,000 per year and wanted to know why Barack would increase his taxes. Joe has worked his tail off for 15 years and has put together enough money, perhaps with the help of his local banker (who I hope still has money to lend), to buy a plumbing business. Being a careful investor, Joe wants to know what the tax landscape is going to look like if he buys this business.

There has been some discussion about whether any part of the current market crash is based upon the anticipation of investors that they’re going to get taxed more under an Obama administration. If they believe they will, they will want to adjust their investments to minimize or eliminate the increased tax.

I think that Joe is an excellent example of a main street investor who is in the process of doing exactly that. He doesn’t want to sink a lot of money into a business if the profits he earns through his hard word are headed to Washington. It appears that Joe has determined that, given the current tax structure, it makes sense for him to buy the plumbing business, but he doesn’t want to get locked into that decision if Obama and a Democrat congress are going to raise his taxes.

I suggest that all over the country, Joes and Janes are doing exactly the same thing and that we’re seeing a small preview of the consequences of an Obama administration right now.

What a shame that is. I don’t know if Joe’s a good plumber or would be a good manager, but he seems like a smart guy, the kind of guy who is likely to make a success of a plumbing business.

What does the country lose if Joe doesn’t follow his dream? Everyone has focused on Joe’s future income, but that’s only a small part of what is lost. Joe’s plumbing business is going to hire and train more plumbers. These are good-paying jobs. In a small business, each of his employees is going to know that Joe started out just like they did, but through hard work and saving his money, he bought the business and is doing well. Joe’s employees are going to think about doing the same thing themselves. Some will be happy to continue to work for Joe, but some are going to try to do just what they’ve seen Joe do and start or buy their own businesses. These little Joes are going to hire more plumbers, etc., etc.

So, which is better for the American economy and the American taxpayer? Joe buying the business or Joe not buying the business? Over the course of a 20-year run, Joe’s plumbing business is going to contribute millions of dollars to the economy and pay millions in taxes at non-Obama tax rates. If Joe doesn’t buy the business, he probably won’t pay any of Obama’s higher taxes and both the economy and government tax revenues will suffer.

Tags: Economy, Liberal "Solutions", Obama, Taxes by Publius
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Just briefly, when responding to a voter question at a town hall, the real Barack showed himself. From Investors Business Daily

But on a campaign stop in Toledo, he couldn’t assure self-employed 34-year-old plumber Joe Wurzelbacher to his face that he would get a tax cut. Poised to buy a $250,000-a-year firm, the working-class plumber of 15 years confronted Obama.

“Your new tax plan is going to tax me more, isn’t it?” he asked.

Obama responded with the promise of a 50% tax credit for health care, but the senator conceded that Wurzelbacher’s income taxes would indeed rise.

“It’s not that I want to punish your success,” Obama told him. “I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you — that they’ve got a chance at success too.”

Wurzelbacher, who would shoulder all the responsibility and risk of such an investment, did not look impressed. Obama then let the cat out of the bag, saying:

“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

Here’s Joe, a guy who wants to be a successful plumber in Toledo and Obama wants to spread some of his “wealth” around to other people who Obama has decided are more deserving of it than Joe, who worked for it.

The editorial says that Joe has been a plumber for 15 years. That’s 15 years of hard work, sometimes up to his knees in sewage, and now, after 15 years of 60-hour weeks, he’s in a position to make a step up and own his own business and Obama wants to tax the socks off of him because he’s “rich.”

If you want an example of putting a bullet through the head of the American dream under an Obama administration with a Pelosi house and a Reid senate, Joe the plumber in Toledo is exhibit A.

UPDATE - Here’s a video of the Obama comment:

Tags: Liberal "Solutions", Obama, Taxes by Publius
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I’m normally not a fan of O’Reilly, but I love this.

Tags: Credit Meltdown, Economy, Liberal "Solutions", Liberal Losers by Publius
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Following a series of cuts in the marginal tax rate that began in the Reagan era, tax rates were further decreased when the Republicans took over congress in 1994 and still further decreased with the Bush II cuts. The result of these cuts is that a very small portion of Americans pay a very large portion of the total income taxes. Unacknowledged by most Democrats, the Bush tax cuts removed millions of people from the income tax rolls.

In 2006, the top 1% of all taxpayers (those who earn above $388,806) paid 40% of all income taxes. This top 1% earned 22% of all reported income, so, even with lower top rates, the income tax system is strongly progressive.

The top 10% in income, those earning more than $108,904, paid 71% of all income taxes. It is clear that a small group of people support the large majority of all federal government expenditures.

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Tags: Economy, Liberal "Solutions", Taxes by Publius
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So we have a financial melt-down and new government regulations are going to fix it.

The problem is that government regulations caused the melt-down in the first place.

The real origin of the melt-down is Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the most heavily regulated major financial instutions in the country and the most politically-connected.  If you want to see what a large institution looks like when it’s micro-managed by Congress, Phonie and Fraudie are exhibits A and B.

You see, Phonie and Fraudie are involved in more than just providing mortgage lending.  They’re experts on social engineering.  Poor people with lousy credit can’t afford to buy homes?  No problem.  Franklin Raines, the Clinton-appointed former head of Fannie Mae from 1998 to 2004, made it his top priority to make mortgages easier to get for people with poor credit, few assets and little money for a down payment.

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Tags: Economy, Energy, Liberal "Solutions" by Publius
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Quote of the day:

When Democrats say they offer change, what they really mean is that things will be different if voters accept the policies they rejected last time.

Kudos to Kevin Hassett

Tags: Liberal "Solutions", Obama Problems by Publius
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A good post on The Rosett Report.

An excerpt:

And enough, already, of Barack Obama’s “improbable journey.” He grew up in an America in which, under both Democratic and Republican presidents, his rise turned out to be wonderfully possible — and at lightning speed. What’s really improbable is the destination that in the name of “change” he now promises this nation.

The place to which he would guide us is a land of the free lunch, where the government will wake you up in the morning, tuck you in at night, and pay your bills in between. Healthcare, daycare, college tuition, energy, pensions, jobs … you-name-it, the super-size state will be there, assuring, insuring, investing, redistributing, paying off credit card bills, rebuilding cities, mending lives, saving farms. All of that would of course require a state bureaucracy even more immense and intrusive than the bailout-happy tax-and-spend behemoth we have now. But that’s OK, because under Obama, lobbyists would vanish and special interest groups would melt away. With all Americans holding up “change” placards on cue and chanting “Yes we can,” our dreams would become one.

Tags: Liberal "Solutions", Obama Problems by Publius
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Organizer in Chief - an excellent article on Obama’s background in community organizing and how that connects with his view of large government programs and the “meanness” of the United States. This is also a description of one of the many ways that Lyndon Johnson screwed up this country.

Here’s a key quote:

Obama’s nomination will be celebrated as a first for African-Americans. But the racial symbolism may obscure the importance of his presidential run to the tens of thousands of government-funded community groups that stand to benefit from an Obama agenda that’s right out of the 1960s. His presidential platform touts programs that would refuel the nonprofit sector, ranging from a commitment to boost money for federal relics like the ineffective and wasteful Community Development Block Grant program (see “America’s Worst Urban Program,” Spring 2005) to a plan for providing “a full network of services, including early childhood education, youth violence prevention efforts and after-school activities . . . from birth to college” to a series of “Promise Neighborhoods.”

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Tags: Liberal "Solutions", Obama by Publius
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Sorry that it’s taken three posts to wrap up commentary on a New York Times paen to Obamanomics. (See here and here for prior entries)

First topic - the Corporate Income Tax

For now, the people running the party, be they in the Bush administration or the McCain campaign, evidently do not share this concern. They have responded to Obama’s tax proposals with the same kind of attacks that the party has been using since the 1980s. First, they have argued that Obama’s tax increases would end up hitting every income group. Strictly speaking, this is true. Obama’s increase on the corporate income tax would ultimately fall on all stockholders, even poor ones. In practical terms, though, most families own little enough stock that the other features of the tax plan would matter far, far more. That’s why the Tax Policy Center numbers, which include the corporate tax increase, come out as they do.

So if you don’t own stock, then a higher corporate income tax rate doesn’t hurt you? Wrong.

A high corporate income tax comes out of the pockets of the employees more than anyone else. According to a study by the Congressional Budget Office (I know they’re not very accurate, but when they find a bad tax, you know it’s bad), 70% of the corporate tax burden is borne by workers in the form of lower wages and fewer high-paying jobs.

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Tags: Liberal "Solutions", Taxes by Publius
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