WingRight

On the night before the election, I’m predicting that McCain will win by 5-10 electoral votes.

How can this be with Obama ahead in all major polls? The answer is the Spiral of Silence.

The Spiral of Silence was first propounded by German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann and, in short version, means that “a person is less likely to voice an opinion on a topic if one feels that one is in the minority for fear of reprisal or isolation from the majority.”

In more detail via Wikipedia:

The spiral of silence begins with fear of reprisal or isolation, and escalates from there. Individuals use what is described as “an innate ability” or quasi-statistical sense to gauge public opinion. Mass media plays a large part in determining what the dominant opinion is, since our direct observation is limited to a small percentage of the population. Mass media has such an enormous impact on how public opinion is portrayed, and can dramatically impact an individual’s perception about where public opinion lies, whether or not that portrayal is factual. Noelle-Neumann describes the spiral of silence as dynamic process, in which predictions about public opinion become fact as mass media’s coverage of the majority opinion becomes the status quo, and the minority becomes less likely to speak out. (Citations Omitted)

This is the downside of the MSM’s descent into acting as the propaganda wing of the Obama campaign. Those voters who dislike Obama or prefer McCaiin are either not talking to pollsters (some polls have a refusal rate of 80% or more recently) or they’re saying they support Obama while not doing so.

Obama’s injunction to his followers to “argue with your neighbors” and “get in their face” if they’re not voiting for Obama further accentuates the Spiral of Silence.

In Britain, the 1992 victory of John Major and the Conservative party in the face of unanimous polling that predicted a Labor win commenced a standard practice of UK pollsters to factor in the Spiral of Silence. US pollsters don’t do so. I predict that they will in 2012.

See more here and here.

UPDATE: See the Times of London

Tags: Elections, Liberal Media, Political Correctness by Publius
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1. If you’re living in the Republic of Georgia or Ukraine, you better brush up on your Russian. Within 6 months of Obama taking office, Putin will send troops in to Georgia and Ukraine. He will make certain to grab the Baku-Supsa and the South Caucasus pipelines so he can put Europe into a hammerlock, particularly with natural gas. Obama will protest and so will the EU, but nobody will be ready to push Russian troops out. Estimated probability – 80%. Once he’s in Ukraine, Vladimir will start throwing his weight around with Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc. Estimated probability – 70%.
2. Given the timing of the Israeli election, Israel is unlikely to be in a position to take any military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities until after Obama is inaugurated. Obama will absolutely refuse to allow Israel to attack Iran, prohibit overflights of Iraq and threaten to warn Iran if U.S. surveillance facilities observe any Israeli air force planes heading in the direction of Tehran. Estimated probability – 90%. Within the first two years of the Obama administration, Iran will explode a nuclear device and will announce that it has nuclear warheads mounted on missiles capable of hitting Israel and any other country in the Middle East or Central Europe. Estimated probability – 90%. If Israelis don’t start a major program to expedite the emigration of its citizens, Iran will fire one or more nuclear missiles at Tel Aviv. Estimated probability – 60%. If the Israelis strike first, Iran will launch nuclear missiles at Tel Aviv. Estimated probability – 90%
3. Hugo Chavez will decide that he needs some additional land to govern and will start taking it from Colombia. Obama will remember how much Bill Ayers likes Hugo and protest, but do nothing more. A significant border war will break out which will give Chavez a chance to use his new Russian military equipment. Estimated probability – 75%
4. The United States will join with the European Union in a treaty that imposes significant limits on carbon emissions. Most of the countries in the EU will cheat and exceed the limits. The United States will not. This action will reduce US corporate profits by at least 500 billion dollars in the first five years and increase US unemployment to over 10%. Residential electricity and heating bills will triple in that same period and Obama will create major energy subsidies for the middle class. China will not join the treaty and its annual GDP will grow to exceed the GDP of the US during this period.

Tags: Climate Change, Economy, Energy, Liberal "Solutions", Obama, Russia by Publius
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Excellent post by Mark Levin at The Corner. I’m including a longer excerpt than normal because I think it’s so excellent.

The Obama Temptation [Mark R. Levin]

I’ve been thinking this for a while so I might as well air it here. I honestly never thought we’d see such a thing in our country - not yet anyway - but I sense what’s occurring in this election is a recklessness and abandonment of rationality that has preceded the voluntary surrender of liberty and security in other places. I can’t help but observe that even some conservatives are caught in the moment as their attempts at explaining their support for Barack Obama are unpersuasive and even illogical. And the pull appears to be rather strong. Ken Adelman, Doug Kmiec, and others, reach for the usual platitudes in explaining themselves but are utterly incoherent. Even non-conservatives with significant public policy and real world experiences, such as Colin Powell and Charles Fried, find Obama alluring but can’t explain themselves in an intelligent way.

There is a cult-like atmosphere around Barack Obama, which his campaign has carefully and successfully fabricated, which concerns me. The messiah complex. Fainting audience members at rallies. Special Obama flags and an Obama presidential seal. A graphic with the portrayal of the globe and Obama’s name on it, which adorns everything from Obama’s plane to his street literature. Young school children singing songs praising Obama. Teenagers wearing camouflage outfits and marching in military order chanting Obama’s name and the professions he is going to open to them. An Obama world tour, culminating in a speech in Berlin where Obama proclaims we are all citizens of the world. I dare say, this is ominous stuff.

. . . .

But beyond the elites and the media, my greatest concern is whether this election will show a majority of the voters susceptible to the appeal of a charismatic demagogue. This may seem a harsh term to some, and no doubt will to Obama supporters, but it is a perfectly appropriate characterization. Obama’s entire campaign is built on class warfare and human envy. The “change” he peddles is not new. We’ve seen it before. It is change that diminishes individual liberty for the soft authoritarianism of socialism. It is a populist appeal that disguises government mandated wealth redistribution as tax cuts for the middle class, falsely blames capitalism for the social policies and government corruption (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) that led to the current turmoil in our financial markets, fuels contempt for commerce and trade by stigmatizing those who run successful small and large businesses, and exploits human imperfection as a justification for a massive expansion of centralized government. Obama’s appeal to the middle class is an appeal to the “the proletariat,” as an infamous philosopher once described it, about which a mythology has been created. Rather than pursue the American Dream, he insists that the American Dream has arbitrary limits, limits Obama would set for the rest of us — today it’s $250,000 for businesses and even less for individuals. If the individual dares to succeed beyond the limits set by Obama, he is punished for he’s now officially “rich.” The value of his physical and intellectual labor must be confiscated in greater amounts for the good of the proletariat (the middle class). And so it is that the middle class, the birth-child of capitalism, is both celebrated and enslaved — for its own good and the greater good. The “hope” Obama represents, therefore, is not hope at all. It is the misery of his utopianism imposed on the individual.

Unlike past Democrat presidential candidates, Obama is a hardened ideologue. He’s not interested in playing around the edges. He seeks “fundamental change,” i.e., to remake society. And if the Democrats control Congress with super-majorities led by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, he will get much of what he demands.

Tags: Liberal Fascism, Obama by Publius
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So, Barack comes up through the Chicago Democratic organization, likely the most corrupt big-city machine still in existence.

Obama’s crookedness continues, via The Corner on National Review:

So I went to the Obama website this afternoon and clicked on the “Donate” button.

I used my real MasterCard number (but was not asked for the 3 digit security code).

Used the following information and it was accepted…

First name: Fake
Last Name: Donor
Address: 1 Dollar To Prove A Point
City: Fraudulent
State: AL
Zip / Post: 33333
Email Address: allmyinfoismadeup@mediabias.com
Phone Number: 2125551212
Employer: Mainstream Media
Occupation: Being in the Tank

And incredibly, my $5 donation was ACCEPTED!!!

I then went to the McCain site and used the exact same information (and WAS asked for the 3 digit security code for my MasterCard).  There, my contribution was rejected with the following message: “Your transaction was not approved for the following reason(s): Invalid data”, and then: “We have found errors in the information that you have submitted.  Please review the information below and try again.”

What’s the political philosophy behind such blatant dishonesty and illegal behavior? Get the money, win the election, then see if you get caught. If Obama wins the election, he controls the Justice Department, so you can forget about any criminal prosecution. If the toothless FEC does anything, it will assess a fine against the Obama campaign - $250,000 is my bet, maybe a million. Chicago pol Obama figures that swapping a $250,000 fine for hundreds of millions in illegal donations and four years in the White House is a great deal.

Tags: Liberal Hypocrisy, Obama Problems by Publius
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Pay no attention to the radical behind the curtain.

Tags: Ayers, Liberal Fascism, Obama by Publius
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There’s a lot of good commentary about the conversation between Joe the Plumber and the Obama. My favorite so far is from Claudia Rosett.

But I haven’t heard anyone talk about Joe the investor. As a predicate for his question, Joe said he was thinking about buying a business that would generate $250,000-$280,000 per year and wanted to know why Barack would increase his taxes. Joe has worked his tail off for 15 years and has put together enough money, perhaps with the help of his local banker (who I hope still has money to lend), to buy a plumbing business. Being a careful investor, Joe wants to know what the tax landscape is going to look like if he buys this business.

There has been some discussion about whether any part of the current market crash is based upon the anticipation of investors that they’re going to get taxed more under an Obama administration. If they believe they will, they will want to adjust their investments to minimize or eliminate the increased tax.

I think that Joe is an excellent example of a main street investor who is in the process of doing exactly that. He doesn’t want to sink a lot of money into a business if the profits he earns through his hard word are headed to Washington. It appears that Joe has determined that, given the current tax structure, it makes sense for him to buy the plumbing business, but he doesn’t want to get locked into that decision if Obama and a Democrat congress are going to raise his taxes.

I suggest that all over the country, Joes and Janes are doing exactly the same thing and that we’re seeing a small preview of the consequences of an Obama administration right now.

What a shame that is. I don’t know if Joe’s a good plumber or would be a good manager, but he seems like a smart guy, the kind of guy who is likely to make a success of a plumbing business.

What does the country lose if Joe doesn’t follow his dream? Everyone has focused on Joe’s future income, but that’s only a small part of what is lost. Joe’s plumbing business is going to hire and train more plumbers. These are good-paying jobs. In a small business, each of his employees is going to know that Joe started out just like they did, but through hard work and saving his money, he bought the business and is doing well. Joe’s employees are going to think about doing the same thing themselves. Some will be happy to continue to work for Joe, but some are going to try to do just what they’ve seen Joe do and start or buy their own businesses. These little Joes are going to hire more plumbers, etc., etc.

So, which is better for the American economy and the American taxpayer? Joe buying the business or Joe not buying the business? Over the course of a 20-year run, Joe’s plumbing business is going to contribute millions of dollars to the economy and pay millions in taxes at non-Obama tax rates. If Joe doesn’t buy the business, he probably won’t pay any of Obama’s higher taxes and both the economy and government tax revenues will suffer.

Tags: Economy, Liberal "Solutions", Obama, Taxes by Publius
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Just briefly, when responding to a voter question at a town hall, the real Barack showed himself. From Investors Business Daily

But on a campaign stop in Toledo, he couldn’t assure self-employed 34-year-old plumber Joe Wurzelbacher to his face that he would get a tax cut. Poised to buy a $250,000-a-year firm, the working-class plumber of 15 years confronted Obama.

“Your new tax plan is going to tax me more, isn’t it?” he asked.

Obama responded with the promise of a 50% tax credit for health care, but the senator conceded that Wurzelbacher’s income taxes would indeed rise.

“It’s not that I want to punish your success,” Obama told him. “I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you — that they’ve got a chance at success too.”

Wurzelbacher, who would shoulder all the responsibility and risk of such an investment, did not look impressed. Obama then let the cat out of the bag, saying:

“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

Here’s Joe, a guy who wants to be a successful plumber in Toledo and Obama wants to spread some of his “wealth” around to other people who Obama has decided are more deserving of it than Joe, who worked for it.

The editorial says that Joe has been a plumber for 15 years. That’s 15 years of hard work, sometimes up to his knees in sewage, and now, after 15 years of 60-hour weeks, he’s in a position to make a step up and own his own business and Obama wants to tax the socks off of him because he’s “rich.”

If you want an example of putting a bullet through the head of the American dream under an Obama administration with a Pelosi house and a Reid senate, Joe the plumber in Toledo is exhibit A.

UPDATE - Here’s a video of the Obama comment:

Tags: Liberal "Solutions", Obama, Taxes by Publius
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Out of their own mouths.

Tags: Ayers, Liberal Fascism, Obama Problems by Publius
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Responding to an expanding blogosphere storm, the New York Times has decided that the Obama/Ayers connection needs to be massaged with Obama Has Met Ayers, but the Two Are Not Close.

Both Ayers and his wife, Bernadette Dohrn, refused to speak to the NYT despite numerous requests. The piece is most notable for what it doesn’t say, but first, some excerpts:

Twenty-six years later [after Ayers' terrorist violence], at a lunchtime meeting about school reform in a Chicago skyscraper, Barack Obama met Mr. Ayers, by then an education professor. Their paths have crossed sporadically since then, at a coffee Mr. Ayers hosted for Mr. Obama’s first run for office, on the schools project and a charitable board, and in casual encounters as Hyde Park neighbors.

Who else was at the meeting? The NYT does not say that this was the first meeting between Obama and Ayers.

A review of records of the schools project and interviews with a dozen people who know both men, suggest that Mr. Obama, 47, has played down his contacts with Mr. Ayers, 63. But the two men do not appear to have been close. Nor has Mr. Obama ever expressed sympathy for the radical views and actions of Mr. Ayers, whom he has called “somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago, when I was 8.”.

Even the NYT acknowledges that Obama “played down” his Ayers relationship. Another view of this is that Obama lied about the nature of his relationship.

[Read more →]

Tags: Ayers, Liberal Hypocrisy, Liberal Media, Obama Problems by Publius
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I’m normally not a fan of O’Reilly, but I love this.

Tags: Credit Meltdown, Economy, Liberal "Solutions", Liberal Losers by Publius
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