Is 2008 the Last Hurrah for the MSM?
Is this the last presidential election that the major newspapers and broadcast networks can swing a big part of the electorate one way or the other? I think so.
Major newspapers and the formerly big-three broadcast news programs are experiencing a rapidly-accelerating decline in readers and viewers. Since the early 1990s, the proportion of Americans saying they read a newspaper on a typical day has declined by about 40%; the proportion that regularly watches nightly network news has fallen by half.
Newspapers
- During the six months ending on March 31, 2008, The New York Times Sunday edition is lost 9.2% of its circulation, declining to 1,476,400. Daily circulation was down 3.8% to 1,077,256.
- During the same six month period, Washington Post daily circulation decreased 3.5 percent to 673,180 and Sunday dropped 4.3 percent to 890,163.
- For that six months, the LA Times lost more than 40,000 daily copies. Daily circulation there was down 5.1 percent to 773,884. Sunday declined 6.0 percent to 1,101,981.
- In Boston, the Globe’s daily circulation fell 8.3 percent to 350,605. Sunday declined 6.4 percent to 525,959.
- Advertising revenue at The New York Times, Boston Globe, International Herald Tribune and other Times newspapers slipped 16 percent combined in August 2008 compared with August 2007, according to the company’s most recent financial reports. June and July showed 18% year over year declines.
- Classified ads for the Times group newspapers fell 30 percent overall in August, 2008, led by a 45 percent drop in help wanted ads and a 30 percent decline in real estate. Retail ads fell 8.1 percent and national ads dropped 13 percent.
- In the last five years, the New York Times’ stock price has declined from $46 to about $15 per share
- By way of comparison, today The Drudge Report claims 33,505,741 visits in the past 24 hours, 768,368,013 visits in the past 31 dsys and and 6,611,832,432 visits in the past year.
Broadcast Networks
- Substantially more people regularly get news online than regularly watch one of the nightly network news broadcasts (37% vs. 29%)
- The big nightly news shows on ABC, NBC and CBS have a collective audience of more than 23 million viewers.
- Rush Limbaugh alone has 22 milion listeners.
- Audiences for ABC’s “World News” and NBC’s “Nightly News” average 7.6 million and 8.29 million viewers, respectively. “CBS Evening News” brings up the rear with about 5.8 million viewers a night.
- The network news audience is half of what it was 40 years ago and in 2007 dropped 5 percent from the previous year.
- There’s a reason for all those denture cream commercials on the network news. The average age of the viewers of the three networks is 61.
If the US economy goes into a recession, the MSM is going to get hit badly. The newspapers and network news staffs, already reduced in numbers, will be hacked even more. Quality of all types of coverage will decline.
On the other hand, by 2012, internet-based news will have grown in scope and quality. Many more people will have high-speed access and the speed of that high-speed access will also increase. High-quality internet video will be accessible to 90% of the population. All video screens in many homes will be networked, so watching HD-quality YouTube videos or vlogs on the big-screen television will be routine.
Today’s leading bloggers will be established brand names, trusted by their audiences. Rush will have an online and over-the-air audience that is 3-4 times larger than the network news broadcasts (which will be viewed primarily in nursing homes by people who drool a lot).
I think we will look back at this election and the cocooning of Obama by the MSM as the last time that the media elite had any real influence on the outcome.












